Labor market’s transformation in the Carpathian region of Ukraine under martial law and prospects for recovery

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to analyze the peculiarities of the transformation of the labor market in the Carpathian region of Ukraine under martial law, to identify key trends in changes in its structure, to identify the main risks to stability and to formulate prospects for recovery in the post-conflict period.

The study used a range of methods, including the analysis of statistical data, a comparative approach to assessing the dynamics of labor market indicators in the pre-war and war periods, as well as forecasting methods to formulate recommendations for recovery. The author systematizes the factors of influence, including social, economic and migration aspects.

The results show that the labor market of the Carpathian region has undergone significant changes under the influence of military operations, including a reorientation of demand for blue-collar jobs and vacancies in the trade sector, a decrease in activity in high-tech sectors, and an increase in social burden due to forced internal migration. Despite these challenges, the labor market demonstrates a certain degree of plasticity and the ability to partially adapt. However, the duration of the hostilities makes it difficult to maintain stability, and there is a growing risk of increased unemployment, migration abroad, reduced household solvency, and the closure of small businesses.

The findings suggest the need to implement strategic measures to stabilize the labor market in the post-conflict period. The recommended measures include the development of retraining and vocational guidance programs for internally displaced persons, creation of conditions for engaging young people in economic activity, attracting investments to restore enterprises, and reforming state policy to support small and medium-sized businesses. The proposed mechanisms are aimed at restoring the region's economy, reducing social tensions and forming a sustainable labor market.