Geoeconomic drivers of economic security in Eastern Europe: lessons for Ukraine

Abstract

Abstract: The paper identifies key geoeconomic drivers shaping economic security in Eastern Europe in 2022–2026 and derives actionable policy proposals for Ukraine up to 2030 based on comparative evidence from Poland, the Baltic states, Romania and Slovakia. Methods. The study applies a systems‑based comparative design, combining macroeconomic projection analysis, institutional analysis of EU energy and sanctions policies, and case‑study methodology. The empirical baseline relies on World Economic Outlook projections for real GDP growth and inflation for 2022–2026, NATO‑methodology defence‑expenditure estimates, and EU/Eurostat and national‑ministry evidence on energy and infrastructure adaptation. The findings demonstrate that economic security is increasingly driven by energy diversification and infrastructure integration, logistics resilience via ports and border throughput, investment and technology risk‑controls (strategic screening and de‑risking), sanctions compliance capacity and regulatory alignment, and protection of critical infrastructure. The case studies show that Poland’s diversification has been strengthened by the Baltic Pipe corridor and LNG capacity expansion, the Baltic states combined gas diversification with electricity grid synchronisation with continental Europe, Romania improved its geoeconomic positioning through Black Sea logistics, and Slovakia updated investment‑screening and adjusted to the evolving EU energy rules. The paper also notes that in 2025–2026 the EU operationalised a legally binding stepwise regime to phase out Russian gas imports, reinforcing the importance of national diversification planning and contract risk management. Economic security in 2022–2026 is best viewed as “geoeconomic defence”: competitiveness and integration must be backed by infrastructure robustness and institutions that manage interdependence. For Ukraine, priority actions include energy diversification, a dual logistics architecture, strategic investment screening, critical‑infrastructure resilience standards, and sanctions‑compliance strengthening.