Dynamics of venture investment in innovative sectors of the economy under global recession and uncertainty

Abstract

In the context of global economic instability and increasing uncertainty, the importance of venture financing as a tool for supporting innovative development and structural transformation of the economy is growing. Despite crisis phenomena, the innovation sector demonstrates resilience, which actualizes the need to study changes in the dynamics, structure, and performance of venture investment in innovative sectors. The purpose of the study is to provide a comprehensive analysis of current trends in venture financing development, identify its structural transformations, and assess the impact of these changes on the commercialization of innovations under conditions of global recession.The methodological framework is based on methods of generalization and systematization, statistical and comparative analysis, and analytical grouping, which made it possible to examine the dynamics of innovation and venture indicators, as well as to assess structural changes in investments by sectors, regions, and types of investors. The results show that the innovation economy maintains a positive development trajectory even under global instability, providing a foundation for the functioning of venture capital. The cyclical nature of venture financing is identified, reflected in the decline of investment volumes after peak periods followed by a gradual recovery. A high level of capital concentration is observed, manifested in the dominance of high-tech sectors, the enlargement of investment deals, and the strengthening of specific regional positions. The transformation of the investor structure has been identified, characterized by a decrease in the participation of governmental and supporting organizations (in particular, institutions providing advisory, financial, and organizational support for investment activities) and a reorientation of the investment focus toward professional funds and business scaling instruments. The conclusions indicate that the effectiveness of venture capital financing remains intact despite a decline in quantitative indicators, as evidenced by the growth in revenues of innovative companies and the expansion of their commercialization. The practical significance of the results lies in their potential use for developing an effective investment policy aimed at supporting innovative sectors and enhancing the effectiveness of venture capital financing.