THE IMPACT OF THE STRUCTURE OF PUBLIC FINANCIAL RESOURCES ON THE LEVEL OF UKRAINE'S ECONOMIC SECURITY UNDER MARTIAL LAW AND DURING POST-WAR TRANSFORMATION

Abstract

This study examines the impact of changes in the structure of state financial resources and expenditure on Ukraine's economic security under martial law and the creation of conditions for post-war recovery. Particular attention is paid to the balance between domestic and external sources of funding, as well as to the increase in defence and debt burdens. A range of general scientific and specialised methods were employed, including a systematic approach and economic-statistical methods. The information base consisted of official data from the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and international organisations (World Bank). Comparative and trend analysis, as well as the concept of an integrated economic security index, were applied for generalisation. It has been established that in 2023–2025, the structure of state financial resources is characterised by the dominance of external financing and the growing role of debt instruments, whilst maintaining a critically high share of expenditure in the security and defence sector. It has been demonstrated that such a model allows for short-term macro-financial stability, but is accompanied by an increase in debt dependency and rising debt servicing costs. It has been substantiated that the concessional structure of external debt and the accumulation of international reserves act as key mitigators of financial risks. The non-linear nature of the impact of the defence burden on investment activity and macroeconomic dynamics has been identified, confirming the existence of threshold values beyond which negative effects intensify. It has been demonstrated that the structure of public financial resources is a determining factor for economic security in wartime. Maintaining a balance between external financing, debt sustainability and investment activity is a key condition for economic stability and recovery. The practical significance of the results lies in the possibility of using the proposed approach to formulate budgetary and debt policies, taking into account war risks and long-term development goals.