Socioeconomic risks of the spread of counterfeit products under martial law

Abstract

The article is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of the transformation of socio-economic risks arising from the spread of falsified products under martial law in Ukraine. The aim of the article is to identify and systematize specific threats to national security that have significantly intensified during the 2022–2025 period. The study substantiates the necessity of revising state regulation mechanisms for the market of critical goods to minimize damage to the state's defense capability and public health. Methods. The methodological framework of the study consists of a complex of general scientific methods. Logical generalization was used to distinguish between the concepts of «counterfeit», «falsified product», and «grey import». The classification method allowed for structuring forms of falsification by their objects of impact. Statistical analysis of report data from the Economic Security Bureau of Ukraine was applied to assess the scale of shadow commodity markets and identify the most vulnerable economic sectors under war conditions. Results. It is proven that during the war, the nature of the impact of falsified goods changes from economic losses to direct security threats. It was established that logistics disruptions and «deficit demand» stimulate the market saturation with strategic-level fakes: tactical medicine, fuel, power equipment, and pharmaceuticals. The authors developed a risk matrix encompassing military-technical, economic-resource, medical-biological, and environmental factors. It was revealed that the misuse of humanitarian channels for the legalization of fakes and the digitalization of shadow markets create new challenges for market surveillance. Particular attention is paid to the financial aspect: product falsification leads to the depletion of critical resources from the defense budget through tax evasion schemes. Conclusions. Countering the circulation of falsified products under war conditions is identified as a priority area of economic security. The consequences of spreading fakes are of a prolonged nature, which is especially noticeable in the environmental sphere due to soil contamination with low-quality agrochemicals. The necessity of strengthening interagency coordination between customs, tax, and law enforcement authorities to protect national resilience is substantiated. The research results can be used to improve the regulatory framework for consumer protection during special periods.