TRANSFORMATION OF THE EXTERNAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT OF UKRAINIAN ENTERPRISES IN THE PRE-WAR AND WARTIME PERIODS AS A DRIVER OF STRATEGIC CHANGE

Abstract

The article reveals the mechanism through which the transformation of the external business environment of Ukrainian enterprises becomes an objective driver of strategic change. The conceptual apparatus of environmental analysis is delineated: the macro-environment is distinguished from the meso-environment, and transformation is separated from the adjacent phenomena of turbulence, uncertainty and environmental shock. It is shown that classical static models of strategic analysis are suitable for an inventory of factors, yet only dynamic frameworks (the concept of environmental turbulence and the theory of dynamic capabilities) can perform an explanatory and predictive function under wartime conditions. The state of the environment in the pre-war period (2013–2021) is reconstructed, revealing inherited structural vulnerabilities: a raw-material export structure, dependence on Black Sea logistics and the geographical concentration of production capacities. The radical transformation of the environment after 24 February 2022 is analysed – a 29.1% fall in real GDP, destruction of production capacities, the blockade of ports, labour shortages and energy shocks. On the basis of a comparative cross-section by factor groups, the authors propose a typology of environmental shifts that distinguishes accelerated trends, structural ruptures and inversions of predictability. The causal chain 'state of the environment → strategic gap → need for change → type of response' is substantiated, and it is proved that the transformation of the environment is a necessary but insufficient condition for strategic change: the conversion of environmental pressure into proactive change rather than reactive survival is ensured by the internal dynamic capabilities of the enterprise. The methodological basis of the analysis comprised the concept of environmental turbulence and the theory of dynamic capabilities, supplemented by a comparison of statistical data from the National Bank, industry reviews and enterprise surveys for 2013–2024. The practical value of the article lies in substantiating the diagnosis of environmental transformation as the starting point for managing strategic change and post-war recovery.