The role of the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine in ensuring macroeconomic stability in Ukraine

Abstract

The current macroeconomic situation in Ukraine is characterized by the impact of inflationary pressure, currency volatility, and financial instability, which requires adaptive decisions in the field of monetary policy. Under wartime conditions, the effectiveness of monetary regulation largely depends on coordination with fiscal policy, the speed of adaptation to crisis phenomena, and the level of trust in the financial system. The purpose of this study is to assess the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine in stabilizing the macroeconomic environment, analyze its impact on key economic indicators, and develop recommendations for enhancing the resilience of the financial system. Methods. A systematic approach was applied to determine the interrelationship between monetary regulation and macroeconomic stability, along with economic analysis methods to evaluate the effectiveness of the implemented instruments. Results. The key challenges in implementing monetary policy under wartime conditions have been identified, including a significant budget deficit, increased inflationary pressure, the need to control banking sector liquidity, and exchange rate stability. It has been proven that traditional monetary regulation mechanisms require adjustments due to changing economic conditions, particularly through a combination of strict restrictions and anti-crisis measures to support the financial sector. The necessity of strengthening coordination between fiscal and monetary policy, expanding adaptive exchange rate regulation instruments, and increasing the transparency of NBU decisions to enhance trust in the financial system has been substantiated. Conclusions. The practical significance of the results lies in the development of approaches to stabilizing macroeconomic equilibrium and minimizing crisis-related risks in the financial sector. Future research should focus on analyzing the long-term impact of economic shocks on monetary policy and developing strategies to enhance its effectiveness under unstable conditions.