Transformation of retail business models under martial law

Abstract

Abstract: The article offers a theoretical–methodological rationale and an empirical analysis of the transformation of business models in Ukraine’s retail sector under martial law. The relevance stems from a radical shift in the operating environment: disruption of logistics infrastructure, spatial shifts in demand, declining consumer purchasing power, and heightened expectations regarding the social mission of business. The study aims to identify the regularities behind the shift from an efficiency paradigm to a resilience paradigm and to develop a typology of business-model transformation strategies for retail enterprises. The methodological framework combines a historical–logical review of sectoral evolution (1991–2025), comparative analysis of managerial approaches, structural–functional modeling of business-model components, and a risk-oriented assessment of vulnerabilities. The analytical block is complemented by a systematization of leading-chain cases and by the construction of a digital retail ecosystem model that accounts for wartime constraints. The scientific contribution is fourfold: (1) demonstration of the wave-like evolution of business models–from intuitive formats to networked and war-adaptive architectures; (2) substantiation of the sectoral shift from “efficiency” to “resilience” as the dominant managerial paradigm; (3) development of a strategy typology (reactive, proactive, partial adaptation, systemic transformation) with criteria of organizational readiness; and (4) interpretation of digitalization as a system-forming platform for risk management, logistics coordination, and customer experience, alongside the conceptualization of a poly-structural risk matrix integrating operational, financial, technological, and reputational threats. The practical significance lies in an actionable toolkit for rapid business-model re-engineering: decentralized logistics (micro-warehouses, alternative routes), omnichannel and mobile formats, microservice IT architectures, predictive analytics, and cyber-resilience protocols. The proposed approach reorients managerial priorities from short-term profit maximization toward operational continuity, liquidity support, and social investment in communities. The findings indicate that the transformation of retail business models in wartime acquires the features of a new socio-economic paradigm: enterprises function as elements of economic security, combining technological innovativeness, partnership-based coordination, and social responsibility. These results lay the groundwork for further development of a methodology for systemic business-model transformation adapted to extreme conditions and to the tasks of post-war recovery. Keywords: business model, retail trade, martial law, digital transformation, crisis management, strategic adaptation, social responsibility.