The integration of risk-based and crisis management approaches in foreign economic activity management

Abstract

Abstract: The study aims to substantiate and develop an integrated system of risk-based and crisis management in enterprises’ foreign economic activities. It argues that under the conditions of war, sanctions, currency volatility, and disrupted logistics, the integration of risk management and crisis management enables companies to build a resilient security environment and minimize strategic vulnerabilities. The research is based on the systematization of previous studies, identification of key influencing factors, and critical analysis of practical cases. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied to transform qualitative judgments into quantitative priorities, integrate them into scenario analysis, and calculate an integral threat index for each scenario. A three-level model of risk-based crisis management is proposed, encompassing risk identification and prioritization, scenario forecasting of crises, and the creation of an early warning system. This approach allows enterprises to detect “weak signals” in the external environment, adjust managerial actions flexibly, and proactively design contingency strategies. The article provides practical recommendations for integrating the proposed model into corporate security strategies and risk management systems to improve transparency, predictability, and economic resilience in international operations. The approach can be applied by enterprises, investors, and public authorities to enhance the sustainability and competitiveness of foreign economic activity. Keywords: risk-based crisis management; foreign economic activity; Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP); scenario forecasting; early warning system.