Risk management model within the economic security system of a forestry enterprise

Abstract

Abstract: The article examines the conceptual and applied foundations for developing a risk management model as a key instrument for ensuring the economic security of an enterprise under conditions of increasing uncertainty, war-related risks, and global economic turbulence. It emphasizes that modern enterprises are increasingly exposed to destabilizing factors that combine economic, environmental, technological, and social risks, necessitating a transition from reactive to proactive management models. The purpose of the study is to develop a theoretical and applied model of risk-oriented enterprise management that integrates methods of risk identification, quantitative assessment, and modelling based on integral indicators and the IDEF process approach. It is substantiated that such a model ensures the systemic nature of managerial decision-making, enhances the adaptability and resilience of the enterprise to crisis phenomena, and strengthens its economic security architecture. The research involved an expert survey of forestry specialists aimed at identifying and ranking the key threats to forestry enterprises, including war-related risks, inflationary fluctuations, illegal logging, declining forest cover, forest fires, and environmental pollution. Integral risk indices were calculated, enabling the quantitative evaluation of each factor’s destabilizing impact and identification of the system’s “vulnerable points.” A consistent algorithmization of risk management processes was proposed using IDEF0 and IDEF1 models, which visualize the interrelation between risk identification, analysis, control, and mitigation. The study proves that implementing a risk-oriented management system forms a new architecture of enterprise economic security grounded in the principles of proactivity, flexibility, and efficient resource utilization. Future research prospects include the digitalization of risk management processes, the development of real-time risk monitoring systems, and the expansion of the model’s integrative potential through the incorporation of ecological, financial, and managerial parameters of forestry enterprises. Keywords: economic security, risk management, risk-oriented approach, IDEF modeling, forestry enterprise.