Analytical Model for Optimizing the Institutional Design of CBDC Based on a Multi Criteria Approach

Abstract

The article examines the impact of the potential introduction of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) on the structure of financial intermediation, the stability of the banking system, and the efficiency of the payment infrastructure. The purpose of the study is to develop a formalized approach to assessing the macro financial implications of money digitalization based on an integrated loss function that combines indicators of disintermediation, payment system efficiency, and systemic risk. The methodological framework of the study integrates a proxy approach to measuring disintermediation, the construction of aggregated indices, and the application of multi criteria decision analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. The level of disintermediation is defined as the share of liquidity operating outside the banking system, measured through the ratio of deposits to the monetary aggregate. Payment system efficiency is assessed by integrating indicators of cashless payments and payment infrastructure development. Systemic risk is represented by a composite index incorporating credit portfolio quality, real deposit returns, and bank liquidity. The weights of the loss function are determined through expert evaluations with consistency verification. The empirical results demonstrate a nonlinear interaction between the key parameters of the model over the analyzed period. It is established that improvements in payment system efficiency reduce overall losses; however, this effect is limited during periods of heightened systemic risk. The financial stability component exerts the strongest influence on the dynamics of the loss function, which is confirmed by its dominant weight in the structure of the objective function. At the same time, disintermediation plays a secondary yet significant role, intensifying under crisis conditions. Conclusions. The study identifies that the optimal design of a central bank digital currency should be based on the principle of minimizing systemic risks while preserving the achieved level of payment system efficiency. The proposed approach formalizes the trade off between stability, efficiency, and digitalization, providing an analytical foundation for informed decision making in monetary policy. Future research should focus on expanding the empirical base and integrating behavioral factors into the model framework.