Models of ensuring supply chain resilience under geopolitical and economic crises

Abstract

This piece focuses on examining models designed to guarantee supply chain resilience amidst geopolitical and economic turmoil, alongside an assessment of methods for enhancing their flexibility against external hazards. Special emphasis is placed on contemporary strategies for risk oversight, broadening supplier options, digitizing distribution operations, and developing contingency plans to lessen the impact of adverse situations. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to study modern models of ensuring supply chain sustainability in conditions of geopolitical and economic crises, as well as to determine the role of public management mechanisms in the formation of effective crisis-resistant logistics systems. Methods. During the research, a set of general scientific and specialized cognitive methods was employed. Specifically, analysis and synthesis were utilized to examine the theoretical underpinnings of supply chain sustainability. A systems approach was adopted to view the supply chain as a unified, multi-tiered entity operating amidst interconnected risks. Additionally, a comparative method was applied to contrast various sustainability management models during crises. Induction and deduction served to generalize the developmental trends of logistics systems, while elements of structural-logical analysis were incorporated to validate practical suggestions for enhancing their adaptability. Results. The article examines modern models of ensuring the resilience of supply chains in the context of global geopolitical, economic, and military crises. The impact of crisis factors on the functioning of logistics systems is analyzed, in particular the disruption of transport routes, resource shortages, rising logistics costs, and the destabilization of international trade. The main principles of effective supply chain management are identified, including integration, flexibility, risk forecasting, and digitalization of logistics processes. The adaptive, reserve, digital, and hybrid models of ensuring supply chain resilience are characterized, and their features, advantages, and mechanisms of operation under crisis challenges are determined. Particular attention is paid to the role of digital technologies — artificial intelligence, Big Data, blockchain, IoT, and automated management systems — in increasing the transparency of logistics processes and the effectiveness of risk management. The practical experience of Ukrainian companies such as «Nova Poshta», «Nibulon», «Rozetka», «Fozzy Group», and «ATB-Market» in ensuring supply chain resilience under martial law and economic instability is studied. The role of the public administration system in forming the state's logistics security, developing transport infrastructure, digital transformation, and international coordination of logistics processes is analyzed. It is proven that the hybrid supply chain model, which combines adaptability, resource reservation, and digitalization of logistics processes, is the most effective under modern conditions. It is determined that under martial law, the development of alternative transport routes, diversification of export-import flows, support for critical infrastructure, and the formation of reserve mechanisms for ensuring the domestic market are of significant importance. Conclusions. The conclusion is drawn that ensuring the resilience of supply chains is a strategic condition for the economic security of the state and the competitiveness of businesses. The findings have practical relevance for businesses and public administration entities, as they enable the justification of selecting adaptive, backup, digital, and hybrid supply chain management approaches to reduce risks and guarantee supply continuity. Furthermore, this research lays groundwork for the ongoing advancement of logistics digitalization instruments and the shaping of governmental policy in the domain of logistics and economic safety.