Statistical analysis of financial risks: methods and approaches

Abstract

In today's environment of economic instability, the issue of financial risks is becoming extremely important for businesses and financial institutions. Assessing and forecasting risks, such as exchange rate fluctuations, changes in asset values, or interest rate volatility, are key to ensuring financial stability. Statistical methods are important tools for creating a stable financial environment and increasing the predictability of financial processes. Purpose: to study the essence of financial risks and methods of statistical analysis that allow to effectively assess and manage risks, reduce financial losses and optimize financial management strategies based on the analysis of historical and current data. Research methods: a set of methods of theoretical analysis, synthesis and generalization was used to study financial risks and their assessment.

Research results. The article discusses the basics of financial risks, their classification and modern methods of statistical analysis for assessing these risks. The article emphasizes the importance of statistical methods for effective financial risk management in the face of constantly changing market conditions. Traditional approaches to risk assessment are analyzed, as well as the latest statistical tools, such as VaR, Monte Carlo, GARCH models, and their application in financial management practice.

Conclusions. It has been established that statistical methods of financial risk analysis are an important tool for assessing potential threats and managing them effectively. Traditional methods, despite their effectiveness, have limitations in the current conditions of globalization and high volatility of financial markets. Modern methods, such as VaR (Value at Risk), Monte Carlo and GARCH models, allow for more accurate forecasts and better assessment of risks arising in the financial sector, ensuring more reliable risk management in an environment of uncertainty. Improving financial risk assessment methods will help reduce financial losses and increase business stability in the face of economic instability, creating conditions for more efficient and sustainable operation of enterprises in the current environment.