Demographic prerequisites for the development of the labor market in the Carpathian region of Ukraine in the war and post-war periods

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to identify and assess the main demographic prerequisites that influence the development of the labour market of the Carpathian region of Ukraine during wartime and will form its basis in the post-war period. The study uses several general scientific and special research methods: statistical methods – to assess changes and trends in the demographic development of the Carpathian region of Ukraine, the method of analysis and synthesis – to study the main parameters of the migration and natural movement of the population of the region, to analyse the content of regional development strategies; abstract-logical method – for theoretical generalizations and drawing conclusions.

Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine has deepened the demographic crisis in all regions of the state, including the Carpathian region, in which the demographic crisis was not so acute. A sharp reduction in the region's population has a sharply negative impact on the regional labour market. Both components that form the population of the region – migration and natural movement – have a stable negative dynamic. On the one hand, large-scale emigration abroad is not compensated by the influx of internally displaced persons, since these flows have a different age and professional structure. As a result of the war, the region is transforming from a labour surplus to a labour deficit. On the other hand, the population is aging, since much fewer people are entering the working age than leaving it. A significant deterioration in demographic reproduction after 2019, which is exacerbated by the emigration outflow of children and youth, indicates a future shortage of workers in the region.

The analysis of the current development strategies of the regions of the Carpathian region contains only general formulations regarding the need to improve the demographic situation. To reduce the negative consequences of the war and stabilize the population of the region, changes should be made to the existing regional development strategies. It is worth strengthening the role and responsibility of regional authorities in various spheres of life, primarily employment, housing and infrastructure.