Bank financing of economic recovery: assessment of state support programs (2022–2025)

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to provide a comprehensive analysis of state support instruments for Ukraine’s economic recovery in 2022–2025, to assess their effectiveness, and to determine the role of the banking sector in ensuring financial stabilization and investment development. The research methods are based on a combination of general scientific and specialized approaches, including analysis and synthesis, comparative analysis, structural-dynamic assessment, systematization, and generalization. To evaluate the effectiveness of the programs, an integral assessment method was applied, which involves normalizing indicators (financing scale, economic effect, coverage level, impact duration) and aggregating them into a composite index. The results indicate the formation of a multi-level model of financial support for economic recovery in Ukraine, combining concessional lending instruments, grant support, business relocation, and the involvement of international financial institutions. The banking sector has been identified as a key channel for the transmission of financial resources, while the “5–7–9%” program provides the most significant systemic effect due to the combination of financing scale and its multiplier impact on the economy. A trend toward increasing lending volumes, diversification of the sectoral structure, and strengthening of the investment orientation of support has been revealed. Grant mechanisms contribute to the development of the processing sector, whereas business relocation facilitates the spatial transformation of economic activity. The integral assessment confirms the effectiveness of a comprehensive combination of support instruments. The conclusions show that the effectiveness of financial support for economic recovery depends on the coherence of budgetary, banking, and international instruments, which ensure both short-term stabilization and long-term economic growth. The application of an integral assessment approach enhances the validity of managerial decision-making and helps identify priority areas of state policy.